Giants at D-backs
Last play · Jung Hoo Lee flies out to left fielder Max Kepler.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SF 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 6 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno scores. (inning 1) — +24% D-backs
8Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Jorge Barrosa scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.2–8
7Rafael Devers homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–7
6Ketel Marte homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.1–7
6Luis Arraez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–6
3Ketel Marte singles on a fly ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Max Kepler scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd.0–6
3Jorge Barrosa walks. Gabriel Moreno scores. Max Kepler to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.0–4
1Lourdes Gurriel Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
