Giants at D-backs
Last play · Matt Chapman pops out to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SF 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Geraldo Perdomo doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Nolan Arenado scores. Tommy Troy scores. Ketel Marte scores. (inning 5) — +33% D-backs
9Drew Cavanaugh singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Bryce Eldridge scores.4–5
9Heliot Ramos homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.3–5
8Casey Schmitt out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tommy Troy. Drew Gilbert scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.2–5
6Nolan Arenado homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
5Geraldo Perdomo doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Victor Bericoto. Nolan Arenado scores. Tommy Troy scores. Ketel Marte scores.1–4
5Jonah Cox hits a sacrifice bunt. Victor Bericoto scores. Jonah Cox to 1st.1–1
1Ketel Marte homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
