Brewers at D-backs
Last play · William Contreras grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
MIL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 3 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adrian Del Castillo homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno scores. (inning 1) — +24% D-backs
9Jackson Chourio homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
8Ildemaro Vargas doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Jorge Barrosa scores.2–4
5Christian Yelich homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Brice Turang scores.2–3
1Adrian Del Castillo homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
