Brewers at D-backs
Last play · Corbin Carroll flies out to right fielder Sal Frelick in foul territory.
Win probability
D-backs0%
MIL 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 1 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Sal Frelick scores. (inning 7) — -41% Brewers
7Gabriel Moreno grounds into a force out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to second baseman Brice Turang. Tommy Troy scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd. Corbin Carroll out at 2nd. Gabriel Moreno to 1st.3–2
7Joey Ortiz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Gary Sánchez scores.3–1
7Jake Bauers homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. Sal Frelick scores.2–1
1Corbin Carroll doubles (18) on a fly ball to right fielder Jake Bauers. Geraldo Perdomo scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
