Cardinals at D-backs
Last play · Ketel Marte called out on strikes.
Win probability
D-backs0%
STL 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 2 AZ
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 8) — +45% D-backs
9Iván Herrera out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. José Fermín scores.5–4
8Corbin Carroll homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Geraldo Perdomo scores.4–4
8Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. Alec Burleson scores.4–2
5JJ Wetherholt homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
3Tim Tawa homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
2Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Nathan Church. Gabriel Moreno scores. Max Kepler to 3rd.2–1
1Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tim Tawa. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
