Cardinals at D-backs
Last play · Max Kepler doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jorge Barrosa scores.
Win probability
D-backs100%
STL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 7 – 0 AZ
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyler Locklear scores. (inning 8) — +45% D-backs
10Max Kepler doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jorge Barrosa scores.7–8
8Nolan Arenado homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Tyler Locklear scores.7–7
7Geraldo Perdomo hits an inside-the-park home run (7) on a line drive to left field. Adrian Del Castillo scores.7–5
6Tyler Locklear walks. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.7–3
6Gabriel Moreno walks. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.7–2
6Ketel Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Ryan Waldschmidt to 3rd.7–1
5Blaze Jordan singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Alec Burleson scores. José Fermín scores. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.7–0
3Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
