Athletics at D-backs
Last play · Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Gabriel Moreno scores. Max Kepler to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.
Win probability
D-backs100%
ATH 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 3 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jacob Wilson homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Donovan Walton scores. (inning 9) — -44% Athletics
10Ildemaro Vargas singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Gabriel Moreno scores. Max Kepler to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.5–6
10Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Max Kepler to 2nd.5–5
10Jonah Heim out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Tyler Soderstrom scores.5–4
9Jacob Wilson homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Donovan Walton scores.4–4
8Shea Langeliers homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
7Ketel Marte out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jorge Barrosa to 3rd.1–4
3Alika Williams singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Lawrence Butler scores.1–3
1Max Kepler homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Ketel Marte scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
