Padres at D-backs
Last play · Tim Tawa grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
D-backs0%
SD 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 6 – 0 AZ
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-128 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado doubles (20) on a fly ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 1) — -12% Padres
9Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Sung-Mun Song scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd.9–4
7James McCann homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Tim Tawa scores.8–4
7Nolan Arenado homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Jorge Barrosa scores.8–2
7Freddy Fermin doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Jackson Merrill scores. Sung-Mun Song to 3rd.8–0
6Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Luis Rengifo scores.7–0
2Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Luis Rengifo scores. Manny Machado to 3rd.6–0
2Manny Machado singles on a fly ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jase Bowen scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd.5–0
1Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Jackson Merrill scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
