Padres at D-backs
Last play · Jake Cronenworth flies out to left fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 8 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tim Tawa homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — +12% D-backs
9Gage Workman doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Sung-Mun Song scores. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill scores.4–10
9Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.1–10
8Ildemaro Vargas triples (4) on a fly ball to right fielder Jase Bowen. Jorge Barrosa scores. Tim Tawa scores.0–10
4Ildemaro Vargas doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno scores.0–8
4Tim Tawa out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jase Bowen. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.0–6
4Gabriel Moreno walks. Lars Nootbaar scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.0–5
4Corbin Carroll singles on a line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.0–4
4Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Tyler Locklear scores. Ryan Waldschmidt to 3rd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
