Dodgers at D-backs
Last play · Ryan Waldschmidt homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Jorge Barrosa scores.
Win probability
D-backs100%
LAD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-192 / +178
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Waldschmidt homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Jorge Barrosa scores. (inning 9) — +55% D-backs
9Ryan Waldschmidt homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Jorge Barrosa scores.3–4
8Andy Pages homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
7Tommy Edman singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Mookie Betts scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.2–2
6Freddie Freeman grounds into a force out, second baseman Ketel Marte to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Hunter Feduccia scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd. Andy Pages out at 2nd. Freddie Freeman to 1st.1–2
5Geraldo Perdomo triples (5) on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Tim Tawa scores.0–2
2Nolan Arenado homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
