Dodgers at D-backs
Last play · Max Muncy strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
LAD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-134 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ketel Marte homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores. (inning 1) — +17% D-backs
6Kyle Tucker triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Freddie Freeman scores.2–4
3Andy Pages doubles (24) on a line drive to center fielder Tim Tawa. Enrique Hernández scores. Ben Rortvedt to 3rd.1–4
2Gabriel Moreno doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd.0–4
2Ryan Waldschmidt hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Justin Wrobleski. Tyler Locklear scores. Ryan Waldschmidt to 2nd.0–3
1Ketel Marte homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
