Rockies at D-backs
COL0–
AZ9Last play · Kyle Karros grounds into a double play, shortstop Ildemaro Vargas to second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Tyler Locklear. Mickey Moniak out at 2nd. Kyle Karros out at 1st.
Win probability
D-backs100%
COL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 7 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado hits a grand slam (18) to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ketel Marte scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. (inning 1) — +23% D-backs
8Gabriel Moreno doubles (22) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Jorge Barrosa scores.0–9
8Jorge Barrosa singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.0–8
2Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd.0–7
2Gabriel Moreno walks.0–6
2Corbin Carroll doubles (24) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 3rd.0–5
1Nolan Arenado hits a grand slam (18) to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ketel Marte scores. Lars Nootbaar scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.