Rockies at D-backs
Last play · Geraldo Perdomo lines out to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
D-backs0%
COL 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 6 – 2 AZ
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Sullivan homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Mickey Moniak scores. Willi Castro scores. (inning 2) — -33% Rockies
8Corbin Carroll homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.6–4
7Ildemaro Vargas walks. Ketel Marte scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.6–3
5Gabriel Moreno doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Geraldo Perdomo scores.6–2
4Zac Veen homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores.6–1
2Brett Sullivan homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Mickey Moniak scores. Willi Castro scores.4–1
2Willi Castro singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Hunter Goodman scores. Mickey Moniak to 2nd.1–1
1Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Zac Veen. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
