Rockies at D-backs
Last play · Tim Tawa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs0%
COL 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Karros homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Ezequiel Tovar scores. (inning 6) — -31% Rockies
7Mickey Moniak out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Hunter Goodman scores.3–2
6Kyle Karros homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Ezequiel Tovar scores.2–2
1Ketel Marte homers (21) on a line drive to right center field.0–2
1Corbin Carroll homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
