Reds at D-backs
CIN0–
AZ9Last play · Will Banfield strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
CIN 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 6 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+173 / -187
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Lawlar homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Tim Tawa scores. (inning 2) — +16% D-backs
8Tim Tawa doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Nolan Arenado scores.0–9
8Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder TJ Friedl. Geraldo Perdomo scores.0–8
7Jordan Lawlar singles on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Tim Tawa to 2nd.0–7
4Geraldo Perdomo singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Corbin Carroll scores.0–6
3Ryan Waldschmidt doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder TJ Friedl. Jordan Lawlar scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd.0–5
2Ildemaro Vargas out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Jose Fernandez scores.0–4
2Jordan Lawlar homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Tim Tawa scores.0–3
1Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Corbin Carroll scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.