Reds at D-backs
CIN11–
AZ5Last play · Nolan Arenado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs0%
CIN 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 7 – 2 AZ
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Bleday doubles (14) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll, deflected by first baseman Tim Tawa. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 1) — -12% Reds
8Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Nolan Arenado scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd.11–5
8Matt McLain homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.11–4
7Tyler Stephenson singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.10–4
7Héctor Rodríguez homers (1) on a line drive to right center field.9–4
6Tim Tawa homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Nolan Arenado scores.8–4
6JJ Bleday homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.8–2
5Lars Nootbaar grounds into a force out, second baseman Matt McLain to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jose Fernandez out at 2nd. Lars Nootbaar to 1st.7–2
5Elly De La Cruz homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.7–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.