Reds at D-backs
Last play · Tyler Stephenson called out on strikes.
Win probability
D-backs100%
CIN 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 3 – 0 AZ
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas triples (5) on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Jordan Lawlar scores. James McCann scores. (inning 7) — +44% D-backs
7Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Ildemaro Vargas scores.3–5
7Ildemaro Vargas triples (5) on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Jordan Lawlar scores. James McCann scores.3–4
7Lars Nootbaar grounds out, pitcher Luis Mey to first baseman Sal Stewart. Tim Tawa scores. Jordan Lawlar to 3rd. James McCann to 2nd.3–2
6Gabriel Moreno out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Corbin Carroll scores.3–1
3Eugenio Suárez singles on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Sal Stewart scores. Dane Myers scores.3–0
3Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
