Cubs at D-backs
Last play · Ryan Waldschmidt homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Fernandez scores.
Win probability
D-backs100%
CHC 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 0 AZ
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / +103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Waldschmidt homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Fernandez scores. (inning 9) — +55% D-backs
9Ryan Waldschmidt homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Fernandez scores.4–5
8Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Lars Nootbaar scores. Gabriel Moreno scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.4–3
8Gabriel Moreno doubles (28) on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Jorge Barrosa scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd.4–1
6Michael Busch singles on a fly ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Seiya Suzuki scores.4–0
4Ian Happ homers (23) on a line drive to right field. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
