Cubs at D-backs
Last play · Jordan Lawlar lines out sharply to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
D-backs0%
CHC 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 0 AZ
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pedro Ramírez triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Ian Happ scores. (inning 2) — -15% Cubs
7Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.7–0
7Ian Happ doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.6–0
6Carson Kelly homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.5–0
6Michael Conforto homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Pedro Ramírez scores.4–0
5Seiya Suzuki doubles (25) on a fly ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Michael Conforto scores.2–0
2Pedro Ramírez triples (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Ian Happ scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
