Cubs at D-backs
Last play · Ian Happ grounds out, first baseman Tim Tawa to pitcher Juan Morillo.
Win probability
D-backs100%
CHC 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 0 AZ
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / +103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Lawlar homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +26% D-backs
8Ryan Waldschmidt flies into a sacrifice double play, right fielder Seiya Suzuki to first baseman Michael Busch. James McCann scores. Jordan Lawlar out at 1st.0–2
6Jordan Lawlar homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
