Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Tim Tawa lines out to right fielder Bryce Harper.
Win probability
D-backs0%
PHI 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 1 AZ
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Lawlar homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +13% D-backs
9Bryson Stott out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Alec Bohm scores.7–1
8Bryce Harper singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Justin Crawford scores.6–1
8Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. J.T. Realmuto scores.5–1
8Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jordan Lawlar. Bryson Stott scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.4–1
5Jordan Lawlar homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
5Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Bryce Harper scores. Luis Arraez to 2nd.3–0
1Luis Arraez grounds into a double play, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tim Tawa. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper out at 2nd. Luis Arraez out at 1st.2–0
1Trea Turner doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Kyle Schwarber scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
