Rangers at D-backs
Last play · Joc Pederson grounds into a double play, second baseman Tommy Troy to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman James McCann. Logan O'Hoppe out at 2nd. Joc Pederson out at 1st.
Win probability
D-backs100%
TEX 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ketel Marte doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. (inning 5) — +25% D-backs
6Nolan Arenado homers (24) on a fly ball to left field.1–9
6Corbin Carroll homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Gabriel Moreno scores.1–8
6Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Ketel Marte scores.1–6
6Ketel Marte doubles (26) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.1–5
5Gabriel Moreno singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Ketel Marte scores.1–4
5Ketel Marte doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores.1–3
5Ildemaro Vargas hits a ground-rule double (19) on a fly ball to left-center field. Jordan Lawlar scores. Ryan Waldschmidt to 3rd.1–1
5Joc Pederson doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Jake Burger scores. Danny Jansen to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
