Royals at Athletics
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino lines out sharply to center fielder Zack Gelof.
Win probability
Athletics100%
KC 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 5 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 10 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Jacob Wilson scores. Shea Langeliers scores. (inning 2) — +20% Athletics
8Elias Díaz homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
7Darell Hernaiz singles on a ground ball to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Shea Langeliers scores. Jeff McNeil to 2nd.2–6
2Darell Hernaiz singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Loftin. Nick Kurtz scores. Darell Hernaiz to 2nd. Darell Hernaiz advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman Nick Loftin.2–5
2Nick Kurtz doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Jacob Wilson scores. Shea Langeliers scores.2–4
2Shea Langeliers doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Lawrence Butler scores. Jacob Wilson to 3rd.2–2
2Maikel Garcia homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
1Darell Hernaiz singles on a ground ball to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., deflected by third baseman Maikel Garcia. Jacob Wilson scores. Shea Langeliers to 3rd. Colby Thomas to 2nd.1–1
1Starling Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Colby Thomas. Maikel Garcia scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. Nick Loftin to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
