Royals at Athletics
Last play · Jac Caglianone strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics100%
KC 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 4 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 10 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lawrence Butler homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Jacob Wilson scores. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 4) — +30% Athletics
9Michael Massey out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Zack Gelof. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.2–5
6Nick Kurtz doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Darell Hernaiz scores.1–5
4Lawrence Butler homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Jacob Wilson scores. Jeff McNeil scores.1–4
2Jeff McNeil doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Jacob Wilson scores.1–1
1Salvador Perez lines into a force out, shortstop Jacob Wilson to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Carter Jensen out at 2nd. Salvador Perez to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
