Cardinals at Athletics
Last play · Jeff McNeil grounds out, pitcher Riley O'Brien to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Athletics0%
STL 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 3 ATH
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Wetherholt homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Nolan Gorman scores. (inning 6) — -24% Cardinals
8Shea Langeliers homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.6–4
6JJ Wetherholt homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Nolan Gorman scores.6–3
2Shea Langeliers doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Jeff McNeil scores. Nick Kurtz scores.4–3
2Nick Kurtz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Darell Hernaiz scores. Jeff McNeil to 2nd.4–1
1Yohel Pozo singles on a line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. José Fermín scores.4–0
1José Fermín doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores.3–0
1Jordan Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
