Cardinals at Athletics
Last play · Alec Burleson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics100%
STL 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 4 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz hits a grand slam (6) to center field. Darell Hernaiz scores. Michael Stefanic scores. Shea Langeliers scores. (inning 5) — +47% Athletics
8Zack Gelof homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–6
7Henry Bolte out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Nick Kurtz scores. Colby Thomas to 3rd.2–5
7Iván Herrera out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Colby Thomas. Pedro Pagés scores.2–4
5Nick Kurtz hits a grand slam (6) to center field. Darell Hernaiz scores. Michael Stefanic scores. Shea Langeliers scores.1–4
4Nathan Church singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
