Giants at Athletics
Last play · Matt Chapman grounds out softly, catcher Shea Langeliers to first baseman Nick Kurtz.
Win probability
Athletics100%
SF 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 5 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz homers (8) on a line drive to center field. Lawrence Butler scores. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 5) — +40% Athletics
5Henry Bolte singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Shea Langeliers scores. Brent Rooker to 2nd.2–5
5Nick Kurtz homers (8) on a line drive to center field. Lawrence Butler scores. Jeff McNeil scores.2–4
5Harrison Bader homers (3) on a line drive to left field.2–1
4Luis Arraez homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Jeff McNeil doubles (9) on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Zack Gelof scores. Darell Hernaiz out at home on the throw, right fielder Jung Hoo Lee to second baseman Luis Arraez to catcher Daniel Susac.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
