Giants at Athletics
Last play · Jonah Heim grounds out, third baseman Matt Chapman to first baseman Rafael Devers.
Win probability
Athletics0%
SF 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 1 ATH
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Harrison Bader scores. Luis Arraez scores. Casey Schmitt to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Lawrence Butler. (inning 8) — -21% Giants
8Harrison Bader hits a grand slam (4) to right field. Willy Adames scores. Matt Chapman scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores.10–1
8Jung Hoo Lee singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Rafael Devers scores. Willy Adames to 3rd. Matt Chapman to 2nd.6–1
8Daniel Susac grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Casey Schmitt scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Willy Adames to 2nd.5–1
8Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Harrison Bader scores. Luis Arraez scores. Casey Schmitt to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Lawrence Butler.4–1
5Carlos Cortes doubles (8) on a pop up to second baseman Luis Arraez. Darell Hernaiz scores. Nick Kurtz to 3rd.2–1
4Matt Chapman doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Willy Adames scores.2–0
3Luis Arraez homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
