Mariners at Athletics
Last play · Zack Gelof strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics0%
SEA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 7 – 0 ATH
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores. (inning 3) — -14% Mariners
9Jeff McNeil grounds into an unassisted double play, first baseman Josh Naylor. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Henry Bolte out at 2nd. Jeff McNeil out at 1st.9–2
9Randy Arozarena homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Josh Naylor scores.9–1
8Shea Langeliers homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.7–1
4J.P. Crawford homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.7–0
3Dominic Canzone homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Cole Young scores.6–0
3Luke Raley homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Randy Arozarena scores.4–0
3Randy Arozarena doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Josh Naylor scores.2–0
3Josh Naylor grounds into a force out, shortstop Darell Hernaiz to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Colt Emerson scores. Julio Rodríguez out at 2nd. Josh Naylor to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
