Mariners at Athletics
SEA4–
ATH1Last play · Lawrence Butler grounds out to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Athletics0%
SEA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 4 – 0 ATH
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Athletics challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was overturned: Mitch Garver hits a ground-rule double (2) on a ground ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores. Rob Refsnyder to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Mariners
9Tyler Soderstrom homers (6) on a line drive to center field.4–1
4Julio Rodríguez singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Victor Robles scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.4–0
2J.P. Crawford out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Mitch Garver scores. Victor Robles to 3rd.3–0
2Cole Young out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Rob Refsnyder scores.2–0
2Athletics challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was overturned: Mitch Garver hits a ground-rule double (2) on a ground ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores. Rob Refsnyder to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.