Mariners at Athletics
Last play · Darell Hernaiz grounds into a force out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to second baseman Cole Young. Zack Gelof out at 2nd.
Win probability
Athletics0%
SEA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 0 ATH
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rob Refsnyder homers (3) on a line drive to left field. J.P. Crawford scores. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 1) — -28% Mariners
9Jeff McNeil grounds into a double play, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jonah Heim scores. Henry Bolte out at 2nd. Jeff McNeil out at 1st.9–1
8Julio Rodríguez homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Cole Young scores. Colt Emerson scores.9–0
6Colt Emerson grounds into a force out, first baseman Nick Kurtz to shortstop Darell Hernaiz. Cole Young scores. Jhonny Pereda out at 2nd. Colt Emerson to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Darell Hernaiz.6–0
4Colt Emerson triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Cole Young scores. Jhonny Pereda scores.5–0
1Rob Refsnyder homers (3) on a line drive to left field. J.P. Crawford scores. Josh Naylor scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
