Yankees at Athletics
Last play · Alika Williams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics0%
NYY 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 7 – 1 ATH
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-162 / +134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul Goldschmidt homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 1) — -26% Yankees
9Zack Gelof singles on a ground ball to center fielder Trent Grisham. Brent Rooker scores. Henry Bolte to 2nd.8–2
7Ben Rice homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.8–1
4Aaron Judge grounds out, third baseman Zack Gelof to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.7–1
3Ryan McMahon homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.6–1
2Ben Rice singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. José Caballero scores. Trent Grisham to 2nd.5–1
1Nick Kurtz homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.4–0
1Aaron Judge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Ben Rice scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
