Yankees at Athletics
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounds out to first baseman Nick Kurtz.
Win probability
Athletics100%
NYY 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 2 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-172 / +142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Shea Langeliers homers (14) on a line drive to center field. Nick Kurtz scores. (inning 1) — +17% Athletics
9Cody Bellinger walks. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd.4–6
9Aaron Judge walks. J.C. Escarra scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd. Ben Rice to 2nd.3–6
9Ben Rice walks. Ryan McMahon scores. J.C. Escarra to 3rd. Trent Grisham to 2nd.2–6
8Zack Gelof singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Brent Rooker scores. Tyler Soderstrom to 3rd.1–6
7Nick Kurtz homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Colby Thomas scores.1–5
6Tyler Soderstrom homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Paul Goldschmidt walks.1–2
1Shea Langeliers homers (14) on a line drive to center field. Nick Kurtz scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
