Brewers at Athletics
Last play · Jackson Chourio lines out to shortstop Alika Williams.
Win probability
Athletics100%
MIL 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 6 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
15
opened 14.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Soderstrom homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Shea Langeliers scores. (inning 5) — +25% Athletics
6Zack Gelof homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.5–7
6Christian Yelich singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Garrett Mitchell scores. David Hamilton to 3rd. Christian Yelich to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Henry Bolte.5–6
6Sal Frelick grounds out softly, shortstop Alika Williams to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.4–6
5Jonah Heim homers (5) on a line drive to center field.3–6
5Tyler Soderstrom homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Shea Langeliers scores.3–5
4Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Garrett Mitchell scores.3–3
2Henry Bolte homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonah Heim scores.2–3
1Nick Kurtz homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
