Rockies at Athletics
Last play · Sterlin Thompson grounds out, first baseman Nick Kurtz to pitcher Elvis Alvarado.
Win probability
Athletics100%
COL 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 5 – 4 ATH
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
14
opened 14
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zack Gelof homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Henry Bolte scores. (inning 4) — +22% Athletics
6Carlos Cortes hit by pitch. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Nick Kurtz to 3rd. Shea Langeliers to 2nd.5–7
6Tyler Soderstrom doubles (18) on a fly ball to left fielder Sterlin Thompson. Alika Williams scores.5–6
6Alika Williams singles on a fly ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Zack Gelof scores.5–5
5TJ Rumfield doubles (14) on a fly ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Edouard Julien scores. Willi Castro out at home on the throw, center fielder Henry Bolte to second baseman Alika Williams to catcher Shea Langeliers.5–4
5Willi Castro walks.4–4
5Brett Sullivan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zack Gelof. Kyle Karros scores.3–4
4Zack Gelof homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Henry Bolte scores.2–4
4Troy Johnston singles on a line drive to right fielder Zack Gelof. TJ Rumfield scores. Troy Johnston out at 2nd, third baseman Max Muncy to shortstop Jacob Wilson.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
