Rockies at Athletics
Last play · Jonah Heim grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Athletics0%
COL 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 14 – 8 ATH
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
14
opened 14
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -198
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willi Castro homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Karros scores. (inning 2) — -25% Rockies
8TJ Rumfield homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.23–9
8Willi Castro hits a grand slam (5) to right field. Kyle Karros scores. Troy Johnston scores. Braxton Fulford scores.22–9
7Tyler Soderstrom homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.18–9
7Ezequiel Tovar doubles (14) on a fly ball to center fielder Lawrence Butler. Hunter Goodman scores.18–8
7Hunter Goodman doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lawrence Butler. TJ Rumfield scores.17–8
7TJ Rumfield triples (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Tyler Freeman scores.16–8
7Rockies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Rockies challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Tyler Freeman grounds into a force out, shortstop Alika Williams to second baseman Zack Gelof. Braxton Fulford scores. Willi Castro out at 2nd. Tyler Freeman to 1st.15–8
5Max Muncy homers (3) on a line drive to left field. Zack Gelof scores.14–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
