Pirates at Athletics
Last play · Brandon Lowe flies out to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom.
Win probability
Athletics100%
PIT 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 6 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 10.5 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Kurtz homers (17) on a line drive to left center field. Jeff McNeil scores. (inning 2) — +16% Athletics
8Endy Rodríguez homers (3) on a line drive to left center field.2–11
7Nick Kurtz homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Henry Bolte scores. Jeff McNeil scores.1–11
7Jeff McNeil singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Lawrence Butler scores. Henry Bolte to 2nd.1–8
7Lawrence Butler doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Zack Gelof scores.1–7
5Zack Gelof singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Jacob Wilson to 3rd.1–6
4Jeff McNeil homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Lawrence Butler scores.1–5
4Jake Mangum singles on a fly ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Nick Gonzales scores. Endy Rodríguez to 3rd.1–3
2Nick Kurtz homers (17) on a line drive to left center field. Jeff McNeil scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
