Pirates at Athletics
PIT6–
ATH5Last play · Jacob Wilson lines out to right fielder Jake Mangum.
Win probability
Athletics0%
PIT 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 4 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Horwitz scores. (inning 7) — -36% Pirates
9Brandon Lowe homers (18) on a line drive to right field.6–5
7Bryan Reynolds homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Horwitz scores.5–5
6Zack Gelof homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.3–5
6Endy Rodríguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Ryan O'Hearn scores.3–4
6Bryan Reynolds homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
4Nick Gonzales grounds out to first baseman Nick Kurtz. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.1–4
1Lawrence Butler doubles (6) on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Zack Gelof scores.0–4
1Zack Gelof reaches on a throwing error by first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Nick Kurtz scores. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Jacob Wilson scores. Zack Gelof to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.