Marlins at Athletics
Last play · Alika Williams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics0%
MIA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 0 ATH
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez homers (8) on a line drive to left field. Liam Hicks scores. (inning 3) — -21% Marlins
9Henry Bolte reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Otto Lopez. Carlos Cortes scores. Henry Bolte to 2nd.7–2
9Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Zack Gelof. Kyle Stowers scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.7–1
7Jeff McNeil out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Henry Bolte scores.6–1
7Kyle Stowers homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Liam Hicks scores.6–0
5Otto Lopez doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Zack Gelof. Javier Sanoja scores.4–0
3Otto Lopez homers (8) on a line drive to left field. Liam Hicks scores.3–0
3Joe Mack homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
