Marlins at Athletics
Last play · Lawrence Butler flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Athletics0%
MIA 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 7 – 5 ATH
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 10.5 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 1) — -25% Marlins
9Owen Caissie homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Esteury Ruiz scores.12–5
8Kyle Stowers homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Liam Hicks scores.10–5
6Kyle Stowers homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.8–5
4Jeff McNeil doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer scores. Carlos Cortes scores. Henry Bolte scores.7–5
3Nick Kurtz homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Alika Williams scores.7–2
2Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Liam Hicks scores.7–0
1Jakob Marsee homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.6–0
1Heriberto Hernández homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
