Red Sox at Athletics
Last play · Alika Williams strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Athletics0%
BOS 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-157 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela hits a grand slam (11) to left center field. Connor Wong scores. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 6) — -56% Red Sox
6Jonah Heim homers (10) on a line drive to center field.4–2
6Ceddanne Rafaela hits a grand slam (11) to left center field. Connor Wong scores. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.4–1
1Tyler Soderstrom homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
