Red Sox at Athletics
Last play · Anthony Seigler flies out to center fielder Henry Bolte.
Win probability
Athletics100%
BOS 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 1 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 10 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brian Serven homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Henry Bolte scores. (inning 7) — +14% Athletics
9Connor Wong homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Jarren Duran scores.3–4
8Lawrence Butler doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Tommy White scores.1–4
8Wilyer Abreu singles on a ground ball to right fielder Colby Thomas. Masataka Yoshida scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd.1–3
7Brian Serven homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Henry Bolte scores.0–3
2Henry Bolte singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Tommy White scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
