Tigers at Athletics
Last play · Lawrence Butler called out on strikes.
Win probability
Athletics0%
DET 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 1 ATH
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-187 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Spencer Torkelson scores. (inning 4) — -14% Tigers
9Ben Malgeri homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Javier Báez scores.13–1
9Javier Báez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Spencer Torkelson scores. Max Clark scores.11–1
8Dillon Dingler hits a grand slam (23) to center field. Javier Báez scores. Ben Malgeri scores. Kevin McGonigle scores.9–1
8Ben Malgeri reaches on a fielder's choice. Max Clark scores. Javier Báez to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Tommy White.5–1
8Javier Báez singles on a fly ball to second baseman Jeff McNeil. Spencer Torkelson scores. Max Clark to 3rd.4–1
8Max Clark doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Zach McKinstry scores. Spencer Torkelson to 3rd.3–1
4Kevin McGonigle out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Spencer Torkelson scores.2–1
3Kevin McGonigle homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
