Red Sox at Athletics
Last play · Jonah Heim flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
Win probability
Athletics0%
BOS 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-196 / +161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andruw Monasterio homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Romy Gonzalez scores. (inning 10) — -46% Red Sox
10Andruw Monasterio homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Romy Gonzalez scores.4–2
6Nick Sogard singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Caleb Durbin scores.2–2
5Lawrence Butler homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
5Jahmai Jones homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2Jonah Heim homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
