Rays at Athletics
Last play · Jonah Heim grounds out to first baseman Ryan Vilade.
Win probability
Athletics0%
TB 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 6 – 2 ATH
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-222 / +205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (35) on a fly ball to center field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 1) — -21% Rays
9Carlos Cortes doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Zack Gelof scores. Alika Williams scores.12–4
8Carson Williams homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Richie Palacios scores. Yandy Díaz scores.12–2
7Victor Mesa Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Liam Hicks scores.9–2
6Taylor Walls homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.7–2
4Lawrence Butler homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Jacob Wilson scores.6–2
4Yandy Díaz homers (17) on a line drive to right field.6–0
4Taylor Walls homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Richie Palacios scores.5–0
3Chandler Simpson flies into a sacrifice double play, center fielder Henry Bolte to first baseman Jeff McNeil to second baseman Donovan Walton. Junior Caminero scores. Liam Hicks out at 2nd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
