Rays at Athletics
Last play · Jacob Wilson grounds out, third baseman Junior Caminero to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Athletics0%
TB 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 3 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-182 / +169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Walls singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Jonny DeLuca scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Nick Fortes to 3rd. (inning 8) — -39% Rays
8Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Taylor Walls scores.10–6
8Yandy Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Cedric Mullins scores.9–6
8Taylor Walls singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Jonny DeLuca scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Nick Fortes to 3rd.8–6
8Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Ryan Vilade scores. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd.6–6
8Junior Caminero homers (34) on a line drive to left center field. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda scores.5–6
7Jacob Wilson doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Zack Gelof scores.2–6
7Jeff McNeil out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Donovan Walton scores.2–5
7Zack Gelof doubles (12) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Henry Bolte scores. Donovan Walton to 3rd.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
