Rangers at Athletics
Last play · Brandon Nimmo grounds out, second baseman Zack Gelof to first baseman Jeff McNeil.
Win probability
Athletics100%
TEX 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 3 ATH
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-154 / +143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Corey Seager scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 6) — -39% Rangers
8Jeff McNeil doubles (15) on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jonah Heim scores. Henry Bolte scores.3–8
8Henry Bolte reaches on a fielder's choice. Tommy White scores. Jonah Heim to 3rd. Henry Bolte to 2nd. Throwing error by catcher Elias Díaz.3–6
7Lawrence Butler homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
6Jeff McNeil homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
6Jake Burger homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Corey Seager scores. Ezequiel Duran scores.3–3
1Carlos Cortes doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jacob Wilson scores. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Zack Gelof scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
