Rangers at Athletics
Last play · Joc Pederson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics100%
TEX 0%ATH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 2 ATH
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zack Gelof homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Henry Bolte scores. (inning 7) — +31% Athletics
8Tommy White homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–5
7Zack Gelof homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Henry Bolte scores.2–4
3Jake Burger grounds into a force out, shortstop Jacob Wilson to second baseman Alika Williams. Wyatt Langford scores. Brandon Nimmo out at 2nd. Jake Burger to 1st.2–2
2Lawrence Butler homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Tommy White scores.1–2
2Jake Burger homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
