Twins at Athletics
MIN9–
ATH6Last play · Tommy White lines out to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
Athletics0%
MIN 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 1 ATH
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-142 / +132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Kreidler homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — -18% Twins
9Lawrence Butler doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Zack Gelof scores.9–6
9Zack Gelof doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jeff McNeil scores.9–5
9Jeff McNeil doubles (17) on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Jonah Heim scores. Henry Bolte scores.9–4
8Tommy White out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Henry Bolte scores.9–2
8Kaelen Culpepper singles on a ground ball to second baseman Zack Gelof. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 2nd.9–1
8Kody Clemens singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Byron Buxton scores. Josh Bell to 2nd.8–1
6Josh Bell out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Muncy. Ryan Kreidler scores.7–1
6Luke Keaschall doubles (20) on a ground ball to left fielder Max Muncy. Kaelen Culpepper scores. Brooks Lee scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.