Orioles @ Athletics — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

BAL4–

ATH3

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
BAL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	6	0
ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	3	9	1

Last play · Lawrence Butler grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.

Win probability

Athletics0%

BAL 100%ATH 0%

First 5 (F5)

final

BAL 2 – 0 ATH

Orioles led after 5

Total runs

opened 9.5 ↑

fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-142 / +132

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

Athletics favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓

Biggest swing · Athletics challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Athletics challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Lawrence Butler singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Henry Bolte scores. Jeff McNeil out at home on the throw, left fielder Dylan Beavers to catcher Carlos Narváez. Lawrence Butler to 2nd. (inning 8) — +32% Athletics

10Zack Gelof singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Alika Williams scores.4–3

10Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Gunnar Henderson scores. Coby Mayo to 2nd.4–2

10Coby Mayo singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Carlos Narváez scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.3–2

8Athletics challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Athletics challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Lawrence Butler singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Henry Bolte scores. Jeff McNeil out at home on the throw, left fielder Dylan Beavers to catcher Carlos Narváez. Lawrence Butler to 2nd.2–2

7Jonah Heim homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.2–1

2Carlos Narváez reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Jacob Lopez. Leody Taveras scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.2–0

2Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Coby Mayo scores. Leody Taveras to 2nd.1–0

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Orioles at Athletics